Edge of Chaos is a political podcast starring Joe Ryan and Neurotoxin. Its aim is to have a free-flowing discussion of news and current events that also examines the empirical outcomes of public policy, avoiding biases based on ideology and policy intentions. Listener discretion is both advised and encouraged.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

First Concrete Prediction for the 2014 Election Cycle

Here's another prediction - I know I'm full of them lately but the political present isn't very exciting:

The 2014 elections will see the Democratic Party hammered by low turnout in ways that make Romney 2012 look tame in comparison. I have taken many classes on community organizing and worked on several organizing projects, and I can tell you the Democrats' strategy since 2009 is exactly what we're taught NOT to do - because the colossal backfire will bury any gains.

Basically, under Obama's leadership - the Dems sent stuffed suits into poor, marginalized, minority communities in the US and promised those populations loosely defined prosperity in exchange for volunteer work, canvassing, votes, etc. The organizations that sprung up pushed through Obamacare and helped Obama win re-election, because the worker bees were energized and the free labor paid off. But at the 4-5 year mark, those being organized top-down become disillusioned with the effort - volunteers stop showing up, donation wells go dry, affiliated organizations distance themselves. We've witnessed this with the collapse of Obama's gun control frenzy, and it's only the beginning. No one ever asked the worker bees what THEY wanted; it all worked on the unfounded assumption that whatever Obama does will serve their needs. Well it hasn't, and the mind-numbing "hope and change!" mantra now draws disdain and apathy; and disdained and apathetic people don't vote. Organizing people to revive interest in something they see as having failed or alienated them is considered a nearly impossible task among organizers - far more difficult than starting with nothing. By 2014, the Dems' so-called "grassroots" base will be in ruins; and you will witness precisely why real organizers know better than to use this strategy.


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