Edge of Chaos is a political podcast starring Joe Ryanand Neurotoxin. Its aim is to have a free-flowing discussion of news and current events that also examines the empirical outcomes of public policy, avoiding biases based on ideology and policy intentions. Listener discretion is both advised and encouraged.
There is no way the NK elite thinks they would stand a chance in an
actual war. Their military of 6 million malnourished, untrained, and
under-supplied conscripts with 1940s technology is not a threat to
anyone with US backing; and they are completely isolated. Their cache of
nuclear warheads and ICBMs is small and primitive - it would not
penetrate the US's massive shield built with the 1980s USSR in mind.
Hence, the most NK could do is evaporate one South Korean or Japanese
city, and then collapse under US retaliation in a matter of hours -
something Pyongyang understands and can't want.
only one reason to saber-rattle on this scale - desperation. Reliable
internal information on NK is very difficult to get; but my hypothesis
is a combination of economic devastation and post-Kim Jong Il political
rivalry are bringing that country to the
verge of popular mutiny. If the UN sanctions are put in place, the
regime will collapse regardless, so THIS is their last stand.
In other words, I believe we are witnessing the final days of the human
rights catastrophe known as North Korea. Good riddance. I hope the
rioting mobs cook Kim Jong's elite and his generals over an open fire
and cannibalize them; the Spanish Inquisition would cringe at what
they've done to their people for decades.