Edge of Chaos is a political podcast starring Joe Ryan and Neurotoxin. Its aim is to have a free-flowing discussion of news and current events that also examines the empirical outcomes of public policy, avoiding biases based on ideology and policy intentions. Listener discretion is both advised and encouraged.

Monday, March 11, 2013

The North Korean Regime On Its Deathbed?

WTF? I have to admit North Korea scrapping the armistice took me by surprise - but it's a PLEASANT surprise.

There is no way the NK elite thinks they would stand a chance in an actual war. Their military of 6 million malnourished, untrained, and under-supplied conscripts with 1940s technology is not a threat to anyone with US backing; and they are completely isolated. Their cache of nuclear warheads and ICBMs is small and primitive - it would not penetrate the US's massive shield built with the 1980s USSR in mind. Hence, the most NK could do is evaporate one South Korean or Japanese city, and then collapse under US retaliation in a matter of hours - something Pyongyang understands and can't want.

That leaves only one reason to saber-rattle on this scale - desperation. Reliable internal information on NK is very difficult to get; but my hypothesis is a combination of economic devastation and post-Kim Jong Il political rivalry are bringing that country to the verge of popular mutiny. If the UN sanctions are put in place, the regime will collapse regardless, so THIS is their last stand.

In other words, I believe we are witnessing the final days of the human rights catastrophe known as North Korea. Good riddance. I hope the rioting mobs cook Kim Jong's elite and his generals over an open fire and cannibalize them; the Spanish Inquisition would cringe at what they've done to their people for decades.


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